By Vijay Oraon | firstpeople.in
In a rapidly shifting Indo-Pacific landscape, China’s growing military support to Pakistan—ranging from advanced weaponry to satellite and air defense technology—has added a new layer of complexity to regional security. For India, this is not just a bilateral threat but a strategic signal from Beijing. In response, New Delhi may recalibrate its approach toward Taiwan, subtly but steadily positioning itself in support of the self-governed island that China claims as its own.
While India officially adheres to the “One China” policy, recent diplomatic and economic engagements with Taiwan suggest a willingness to push back against China’s assertiveness—especially in light of China’s direct military collaboration with Pakistan.
India-Taiwan: A Strategic Understanding in the Making
Although India and Taiwan do not share formal diplomatic ties, their unofficial relationship has matured across multiple fronts—trade, technology, education, and labor exchange.
Taiwan’s decision to open its third representative office in Mumbai in 2024, and the labor mobility agreement allowing Indian workers into Taiwanese industries, reflect growing cooperation. For China, these steps are not just symbolic; they are seen as provocations at a time when Beijing is increasing its military posturing in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s Military Assistance to Pakistan: A Regional Provocation
China’s overt military support to Pakistan—including joint missile development, air defense systems, and intelligence-sharing through satellite surveillance—has raised serious alarms in New Delhi. This military buildup along India’s western border is widely viewed as part of a “two-front war” strategy coordinated by Beijing and Islamabad.
As a response, India is likely to consider its Taiwan policy not merely as a diplomatic balancing act, but as a strategic lever against Chinese aggression on multiple fronts.
How India May Respond to China’s Taiwan Red Line
India’s future approach toward Taiwan could become more assertive in the following ways:
- Expanding Trade and Technology Ties
Semiconductors and electronics: India may seek deeper investment from Taiwanese chip giants like TSMC.
Defense tech cooperation (indirect or third-party): India could explore tech transfers via multilateral forums or third countries.
Joint AI and cybersecurity programs, countering Chinese dominance in emerging technologies.
- Increased Diplomatic Engagement
India may permit more visibility to Taiwanese representatives, even in multilateral summits and business forums.
New Delhi could back Taiwan’s observer status in global health and trade organizations, subtly opposing China’s veto power.
- Regional Signaling through Indo-Pacific Alliances
As part of the Quad, India might support stronger maritime patrols in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Intelligence-sharing and joint naval exercises with Taiwan-friendly nations may intensify, enhancing pressure on China.
- Asymmetric Strategic Messaging
India may use its Think Tanks, Media, and Parliament to voice more overt support for Taiwan’s democratic system—challenging China’s authoritarian claims.
This would mirror China’s open alignment with Pakistan, sending a diplomatic counterpunch to Beijing.
Strategic Autonomy: India’s Core Principle
India will likely avoid direct military alignment with Taiwan but will continue to use economic, technological, and diplomatic means to signal its displeasure with China’s actions—especially its arms pipeline to Pakistan. Strategic autonomy remains New Delhi’s guiding compass, but the nature of that autonomy is evolving—from restraint to proactive balance.
A Subtle but Firm Counterweight to China
China’s decision to arm Pakistan is not lost on Indian policymakers. In return, India may further strengthen its unofficial ties with Taiwan—not to provoke, but to protect its strategic interests. In a world moving toward multipolarity, India is signaling that it will not sit idle while its neighbors are armed against it.
The Indo-Taiwan relationship may not grab headlines like China’s military deals, but its long-term strategic implications could reshape the balance of power in Asia.
